The Southwestern Division of the Toyota Series Presented by Phoenix Boats typically spends plenty of time at Sam Rayburn. This year, though the season starts there, it diverges dramatically afterwards, with Grand Lake and the Arkansas River filling out the rest of the schedule. And, even at Sam Rayburn, with low water and new sonar rules, we could be in for an interesting shakeup.
What to expect
Presented by Suzuki, the season opener on Feb. 12-14 should be a good event, but it might not look like some recent Sam Rayburn events. With low water and a warm fall, the lake currently doesn’t have much grass, and the fish have yet to make a big move toward typical winter and staging haunts.
“If it stays warm like this, they’re going to be shallow, and it’s going to be weird because there’s no grass,” said Texas angler Cody Ross. “The colder it gets, the more they’ll get out on the hard spots, which can be good with the lake being low like this. Then you’ll be able to crank and drag and do those fun things, since we’re only going to be able to ‘Scope for three hours.”
With the lake almost 10 feet lower than it was this time last year, navigation on Rayburn is a little tricky now, but the fish do have fewer places to hide.
“The reason it hasn’t come up is simply because we’re not getting rain,” Ross said. “It’s been very dry; most counties in East Texas are in a burn ban right now. Staying low is good for the offshore bite if it is cold, but the water temps are upper 50s, and that’s not near cold enough for them to do what they’re supposed to be doing – staying down, getting in groups, and big ones on certain spots.”
So, watch the weather, and be prepared to adapt. It could turn out to be a standard, offshore, winter event on Rayburn. Or, we could be in for something without a lot of precedent.
Baits to bring
Offshore, the name of the game is pretty well known.
“If it’s an offshore deal, it’ll be a Strike King 8X and 10XD,” Ross said. “A 6XD will play a lot because of how low it is; the stuff we were having to crank with a 10XD, you could hit with a 6XD this year. Dragging a Strike King Caffeine Shad or a Strike King Game Hawg on a Carolina rig, those will be my main things.”
For those targeting shallower habitat, Ross noted that a vibrating jig or a lipless bait should play well – both are longtime standards at Sam Rayburn.
What will it take?
Last year, Brody Campbell won the January Toyota Series event on Rayburn with 70-5, and Riley Harris won the March event with 82-10 (the entire top five was over 70 pounds). Back in February of 2024, Colby Miller won with 77 pounds, and second place was 62-9. For this one, Ross expects the new sonar rules to impact the weights.
“I don’t have a ton of confidence in myself ‘Scoping up the right fish in three hours a day there,” he said. “You’re going to have to have something else to go to. For me, if I catch two good ones in the ‘Scope period, and then I catch my other three in the other hours, that would be ideal.
“Unless it gets really cold, and they’re posted up really good on offshore stuff and you can catch them early, it won’t take near what it took last year,” he added. “I think probably 64 to 66 pounds, I could see that winning it with three hours of ‘Scope, if there are some good fish on the bottom. If they’re not grouped up offshore, you could see similar weights to the first BFL. I don’t think anybody will bust 70, unless somebody has a really good hard spot they can crank and catch them.”
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